资本外逃的经济效应与应对政策选择研究

资本外逃是一个复杂的经济问题,是由多种原因造成的,并会给一国经济发展带来不可估量的风险和损失。基于此,论文梳理了资本外逃的研究现状,提出了资本外逃所产生的经济效应,在此基础上,提出了资本外逃的政策选择,为一国在治理资本外逃时提供了政策选择和借鉴。     

Environmental regulations in private and mixed duopolies: Taxes on emissions versus green R&D subsidies

In this article, we compare two kinds of environmental regulations—emissions taxes and green R&D subsidies—in private and mixed-duopoly markets in the presence of R&D spillovers. We show that a green R&D subsidy is better (worse) than an emissions tax when the green R&D is efficient (inefficient), irrespective of R&D spillovers, whereas the existence of a publicly owned firm encourages the government to adopt a subsidy policy. We also show that the optimal policy choice depends on R&D efficiency and spillovers. In particular, when green R&D is inefficient and the spillover rate is low (high), the government should choose an emissions tax and (not) privatize the state-owned firm. When green R&D is efficient, however, an R&D subsidy is better, but a privatization policy is not desirable for society, irrespective of spillovers.     

秦迁陵县粮仓设置体系探讨--以出粮机构粮食来源问题为中心

除仓官外,秦迁陵县内的出粮机构还包括田官、离乡及司空等。它们并非都建有独立粮仓,所出粮食的来源也不尽一致。田官不设粮仓,它的出粮地是公共粮仓中的一间专属仓房。离乡建有供应该乡粮食开支的独立粮仓,且粮仓数量与该乡人口规模有关。小乡可能仅有一座粮仓,故有时会产生因储备不足而需要仓官额外输粮的问题。司空、发弩及■舍三者既未建有独立粮仓,也不如田官那般在公共粮仓内占有一间仓房,它们向外供应的粮食全都是由仓官转输。总之,秦迁陵县内设置的粮仓包括县级公共粮仓和离乡粮仓两类。田官、司空、发弩及舍虽承担了部分出粮职能,但并未给县内粮仓体系带来影响。     

Mandatory IFRS adoption and management forecasts: The impact of enforcement changes

We examine how concurrent enforcement changes affect the positive relationship between mandatory IFRS adoption and firms’ voluntary disclosure. We show that the increase in the issuance of management forecasts after IFRS adoption is smaller for firms from IFRS-mandating countries with concurrent enforcement changes than for those from countries without such changes. We find no difference in the increase of forecast informativeness between firms from IFRS-mandating countries without concurrent enforcement changes and firms from non-IFRS-mandating countries; however, firms domiciled in IFRS-mandating countries with concurrent enforcement changes exhibit a significantly smaller increase in forecast informativeness. Our findings suggest that better IFRS enforcement distinctly weakens (strengthens) the positive effect of IFRS adoption on voluntary (mandatory) disclosure.     

江苏省农田保护经济补偿政策绩效评价与空间差异研究

［目的］分析评价江苏省现有农田保护经济补偿政策绩效与空间差异对建立完善长效的农业生态补偿机制和推动我国农业生态环境的可持续发展具有重要意义。［方法］以江苏省为研究区域，运用熵权-TOPSIS法，选取2010—2017年全省及苏北、苏中、苏南三个区域内11个指标，计算江苏省及三大区域农田保护经济补偿政策综合绩效值与经济、生态和社会效益单项绩效值，进行比较分析。［结果］（1）江苏省农田保护经济补偿政策在2010—2017年8年综合绩效值由0189波动增长到0841，效果初现且具有较强推广价值。（2）经济效益绩效值以年均257%的增长率由0增长到1，效果最为显著，社会效益次之，生态效益自2013年后为绩效值中最低值，与前两项最大差距在05左右，反映出环境改善、农田质量提高效应远低于农户创收、社会公平效应，政策拟合度不高。（3）江苏省农田保护经济补偿政策效果存在空间差异，综合来看政策效果表现为苏南>苏中>苏北，苏南凭借经济优势在2016年和2017年的综合绩效值上比苏中苏北高出01、在经济与社会绩效值以002的差距领先且生态绩效值没有下降拐点，具有长效可持续性。［结论］现阶段农田保护经济补偿政策效果依赖地方政府经济实力，尚未形成良性长效机制，需从制度体系、环境经济手段、差别化补偿措施、农业补贴结构和宣传等5方面着手，推进农田保护经济补偿政策更好地服务生态环境。     

Impact of state-dependent oil price on US stock returns using local projections

In this paper, we investigate the impact of oil prices on both aggregate and industry US real stock returns over the period 1973–2017. The empirical analysis contributes to the related literature introducing a state-dependent oil price (high and low) and the local projections approach. Our main finding is that, depending on the nature of the shock and industry, the negative effects of oil price shocks become exacerbated -and the positive effects get moderated- if oil prices are already high.     

Re‐vitalizing money demand in the Euro area. Still valid at the zero‐lower bound

The analysis of monetary developments has always been a cornerstone of the ECB's monetary analysis and, thus, of its overall monetary policy strategy. In this respect, money demand models provide a framework for explaining monetary developments and assessing price stability over the medium term. It is a well‐documented fact in the literature that, when interest rates are at the zero‐lower bound, the analysis of money stocks become even more important for monetary policy. Therefore, this paper re‐investigates the stability properties of M3 demand in the euro area in the light of the recent economic crisis. A cointegration analysis is performed over the sample period 1983 Q1 and 2015 Q1 and leads to a well‐identified model comprising real money balances, income, the long‐term interest rate and the own rate of M3 holdings. The specification appears to be robust against the Lucas critique of a policy dependent parameter regime, in the sense that no signs of breaks can be found when interest rates reach the zero‐lower bound. Furthermore, deviations of M3 from its equilibrium level do not point to substantial inflation pressure at the end of the sample. Excess liquidity models turn out to outperform the autoregressive benchmark, as they deliver more accurate CPI inflation forecasts, especially at the longer horizons. The inclusion of unconventional monetary policy measures does not contradict these findings.     

Copper trade and production of copper,brass and bronze goods in the Oldenburg monarchy: copperworks and copper users in the eighteenth century

This paper explores trade connections – or the lack of such – between copperworks and copper processing plants in the Oldenburg Monarchy in the eighteenth century. Domestic customs areas, high tariffs on raw material export and import bans sought to encourage domestic copper and brass goods production of Norwegian copper raw material, however this was only realised halfway. The raw material from Norway was largely exported, and copper and brass materials used to produce copper-, brass and bronze goods were imported from all over the world. The copperworks and processing plants in the Monarchy never became strongly integrated due to several reasons. First, shareholders of copperworks acquired favourable credit deals abroad, and preferred to export the copper, and second, copper materials had different features and processing plants used all sorts of copper inputs in the making of goods, not only copper raw material. Norway produced mostly gar copper, so copper plants and coppersmiths had to turn elsewhere for other types of copper. Production of copper and brass goods increased, but did not meet the domestic demand partly due to a strong foreign competition. The optimal goal of ‘mercantilist theory’ regarding copper and brass import substitution was not reached.     

Interventions in Markets with Adverse Selection: Implications for Discount Window Stigma

I study the implications for central bank discount window stigma of a workhorse model of adverse selection in financial markets. In the model, firms (banks) need to borrow to finance a productive project. There is limited liability and firms have private information about their ability to repay their debts, which gives rise to the possibility of adverse selection. The central bank can ameliorate the impact of adverse selection by lending to firms. Discount window borrowing is observable and it may be taken as a signal of firms' credit worthiness. Under some conditions, firms borrowing from the discount window may pay higher interest rates to borrow in the market, a phenomenon often associated with the presence of stigma. I discuss these and other outcomes in detail and what they suggest about the relevance of stigma as an empirical phenomenon.